As concerns grow that President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies could steer the U.S. economy toward a recession, some investors are bracing for another turbulent year. Yet history suggests that one asset class is uniquely resistant to economic storms: professional sports franchises.
Despite persistent volatility—whether from geopolitical events, global pandemics, or financial market downturns—team valuations have remained remarkably strong. For franchise owners like Tom Werner, chairman of Fenway Sports Group, that long-term perspective offers both reassurance and a strategic advantage.
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The Pandemic Playbook: Revenue Plunges, Values Climb
Consider 2020. When the Boston Red Sox played their delayed Opening Day, Fenway Park stood empty. Revenue across Major League Baseball plummeted. The Red Sox alone saw a staggering 71% drop in revenue, falling from $519 million in 2019 to just $152 million in 2020, according to Forbes.
Yet franchise values told a different story. MLB team valuations still rose by 3% on average from 2020 to 2021, and by another 9% the following year. The Red Sox outpaced that growth, gaining 5% and then 13%, reaching an estimated $3.9 billion in 2022. Today, they’re valued at $4.8 billion—third-highest in the league.
“Everything took a hit during Covid, and you just have to ride it out and be patient,” Werner says. “That’s part of being an investor.”
Tariffs, Recession Fears, and the 2025 Outlook
With the S&P 500 already down 4% in 2025—recovering somewhat after a sharp 15% drop earlier in the year—investors are bracing for another economic contraction. JPMorgan places the odds of a U.S. recession at 60%, while Goldman Sachs puts them closer to 45%.
Yet sports owners remain among the best-insulated asset holders. Historically, team valuations in the major North American leagues have not only endured downturns—they’ve often continued to rise.
Why Sports Franchises Defy Market Gravity
Since Forbes began tracking team values in 1998, major league franchises have increased in value by an average of 2,000%—more than double the return of the S&P 500. Even following major disruptions, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 9/11 attacks, team valuations either held steady or gained ground.
The Ross-Arctos Sports Franchise Index, which spans quarterly data back to 1960, reinforces this resilience. Over 255 recorded quarters, the index has declined just 39 times—and only 16 times since 1976. It has never posted a drop for more than three consecutive quarters and has delivered a 13% compound annual growth rate over the last six decades, compared to just 7% for the S&P 500.
Stability Through Contracts, Scarcity, and Emotion
This durability is driven by several structural advantages. Long-term media rights deals, premium seating agreements, and sponsorship contracts lock in revenue regardless of broader market conditions. In the 2023–24 NBA season, for instance, luxury suites and premium seating accounted for 12% of average team revenue, while national media rights provided 35%. In the NFL, national media rights made up 60% of total team revenue in 2024.
Moreover, scarcity plays a powerful role: only 124 franchises exist across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. That limited supply, coupled with billionaire competition, drives consistent appreciation. “Over the long term, the scarcity and fun value will always be up and to the right,” notes Dallas Mavericks minority owner Mark Cuban.
Even during distressed sales, owners typically fare well. In 2010, the NBA acquired the New Orleans Hornets for $318 million after owner George Shinn struggled to find a buyer post-recession. Shinn still netted nearly 10 times his original $32.5 million investment. The franchise, now the Pelicans, is currently valued at over $3 billion.
Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Confidence
That’s not to say franchises are immune to all impacts. Game-day revenue—tickets, concessions, merchandise—can take a hit during downturns. And recent data suggests American consumers are pulling back: personal expenditures grew just 1.8% in Q1 2025, while GDP shrank by 0.3%. Unemployment claims are climbing, and consumer expectations are at their lowest point since 2011.
Still, sports remain a reliable escape. “You need a distraction when we are in bad times, economic or otherwise,” says Marc Ganis, president of sports consultancy Sportscorp. “And the primary distraction we have in our country is sports.”
Werner echoes the sentiment: “Obviously, you need to have eggs on the table, but people are still going to go to their home games—and certainly, they’re going to be watching on television.”
Loyalty, Legacy, and the Power of the Fan Base
That enduring emotional connection is central to franchise resilience. From 2003 to 2013, the Red Sox sold out 820 consecutive home games—even through the 2008 crisis. This year, an 11 a.m. Patriots Day game still drew 35,000 fans to Fenway Park.
“It’s one thing if Taylor Swift comes into your market once every two years—you can sell out 100,000 tickets,” Werner quips. “The extraordinary thing about the Red Sox is that people figure out a way to get there. That’s a testament to the relationship this team has with New England.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the title mean by “Trump’s Tariffs Rock The Market”?
It refers to the economic disruptions caused by tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency, which led to market volatility and investor uncertainty.
Why do sports team owners “have nothing to fear” according to the title?
Despite market downturns caused by tariffs or economic challenges, the value of sports franchises historically remains stable or increases, protecting owners’ investments.
Is the title suggesting sports teams are completely recession-proof?
Not entirely. While team values tend to remain resilient, franchises can still face short-term revenue challenges during economic downturns, especially in game-day operations.
Does the title imply that tariffs do not affect sports franchises at all?
The title highlights that while tariffs may impact broader markets, sports franchises have unique financial structures (like long-term media contracts) that help insulate them from such shocks.
Could the title be perceived as political?
The title references a political policy (tariffs under Trump) but focuses on its economic impact rather than political opinions.
Is the message optimistic or cautious?
The title conveys cautious optimism—acknowledging market disruptions but reassuring that sports team owners’ investments are relatively safe.
Conclusion
While markets brace for another wave of economic uncertainty, driven in part by unpredictable tariff policies and slowing consumer spending, the sports industry continues to defy conventional investment logic. Despite revenue declines during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic or the 2008 recession, franchise valuations in major North American sports leagues have proven remarkably resilient—and in many cases, steadily rising.
This enduring strength stems from a combination of long-term media deals, scarcity of franchises, emotional fan loyalty, and a cultural attachment to sports as both entertainment and escape. Owners like Tom Werner understand that while short-term hits are inevitable, long-term value creation remains a near certainty in this unique asset class.
